Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,839,436$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(3.17 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,724,997.2}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 68.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,724,997.2\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $129,676$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.26 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{122,835.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.8)}}\) (asimptote \(122,835.9\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,815,435$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $252,165$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(6.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{363,061.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 94.7)}}\) (asimptote \(363,061.6\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $30,366$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(857 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,875.2}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 85.7)}}\) (asimptote \(43,875.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $26,075$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $107,185$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.78 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,643.1}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 55.8)}}\) (asimptote \(104,643.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $8,732$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,580.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 53.0)}}\) (asimptote \(8,580.7\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,946$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $36,983$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.21 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{358,384.6}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 185.3)}}\) (asimptote \(358,384.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $720$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(48.4 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,044.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 101.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,044.9\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,502$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $36,184$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,880.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 98.1)}}\) (asimptote \(52,880.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $786$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(123 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{788.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 57.3)}}\) (asimptote \(788.1\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16,796$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $22,921$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(154 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.9\) days)
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $629$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(23.6 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,362.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 163.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,362.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,905$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $22,501$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(186 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(15.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,684.7}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 102.0)}}\) (asimptote \(38,684.7\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $920$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(6.45 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,237.6}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 81.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,237.6\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,251$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,507$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(174 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,998.4}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 106.6)}}\) (asimptote \(15,998.4\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $210$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.21 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,863$ on 2020-07-04
